I replaced the chain two months ago on my Multistrada with the 15,000 mile service. Mechanic said it was overdue on Multistrada. Probably should have changed at 10,000 mi.
Last weekend I replaced the chain on my SS S at dealer. Part was $130 plus 1/2 hour of labor. It was NOT an OEM chain. The chain looked fine visually. But when you wiggled the chain, there was chatter. You could hear noise from the chain which is a sign of dryness in o-rings. Since bike was there for annual service, I had them replace it. My bike had over 11,000 miles on odometer.
When we removed the chain, mechanic held it up and it made a smile face (holding end to end). He said there was a lot of play. Chain should have been more straight and not dip down like a happy face. Anyway, I changed it. But it was not immediately obvious from a visual inspection. I have ridden over 1,000 mi on track and may schedule one next month. So, I replaced chain since I was already at the dealership.
So, you may not be able to tell visually, and the chatter noise was very slight.